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Simulating Market Outcomes of Cultivation Tax Removal in California

Sep 27, 2022


Cannabis Policy Simulation Lab: Solving Cannabis Policy Questions with Data Science

The Cannabis Policy Simulation Lab integrates a joint database that includes the quarterly Regulatory Determinants of Cannabis Outcomes Survey (RDCOS) outcomes and state cannabis policies with predictive analysis that simulate likely future outcomes if certain cannabis policies are implemented. The scale of recruitment and breadth of cannabis outcomes assessed with the RDCOS drives the ability to simultaneously evaluate within-state (e.g., localities opting-in vs. opting-out of cannabis activities) and between-state comparisons of cannabis policies on over 200 cannabis outcomes. When coupled with the frequency of data collection, this facilitates an unprecedented opportunity to provide evidence-based insights rapidly and dynamically on the unique roles of cannabis policies on countless societal outcomes.

Examples of policies simulated in the Cannabis Policy Simulation Lab include, but is not limited to the following state-specific variables:

  • Overall jurisdiction (illegal, medical only, or medical & adult use)
  • Tax policies (e.g., cultivation excise tax, cannabis business tax, etc.)
  • Type of medical qualifying conditions by state
  • Cannabis dispensaries per capita and per geographic area
  • Driving under the influence laws
  • Presence of legal medical and adult use delivery
  • Duration of time (months) since implementation of medical cannabis laws and since implementation of adult use laws.

View the simulation here.



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